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In determining your value today the exit CAP rate assumption would have to be no less than 8.5%. A recent CoStar study shows that the mean CAP rate for the past 20 years in commercial real estate properties has been about 8.5%. During the correction in the early 1990’s the CAP rate surpassed 8.5% and reached as high as 10-11% and then settled back down to about 8.5. It wasn’t until the early 2000’s with the tidal wave of credit and money flowing into commercial real estate, that CAP rates compressed as low as 5%. Now they’re going up.
A prudent buyer will plan on a vacancy carry of at least 20 months. If you’re going to buy a commercial real estate asset today with significant vacancy, plan on carrying it for the next 20 months, at a minimum. You should also price rent reductions of 20-30% into your cash flow analysis to allow for the re-pricing that’s taking effect today.
Your discount rate should align with market expectations. Sophisticated commercial real estate buyers are chasing paper where they’re earning 12-13% returns. In order for buyers to be attracted to the risks with owning and operating commercial real estate, the returns must be higher, which means you should plan on at least a 15% discount rate for the term of your investment. Discount your projected sales price and periodic cash flows at 15+% to today’s present value. There’s your number.
Happy Investing!
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Friday, May 15, 2009
Friday, May 1, 2009
Shalom, Aasalaamu Aleikum, Namaste,
Hello, Aasalaamu Aleikum, Namaste, to my gas station clients and Shalom chaverim, to all my circle of friends.
As most of you know, although most of my clients are Muslim, Hindu, or Sheikh, I myself am a Jewess and it is out of my own tradition that I speak this week.
Each week we study a different section of our Holy Book, or Scroll, if you will…Torah. A parasha is a segment of Torah. This week’s double Torah parasha, Acharei Mot (After the death)/Kedoshim (Holiness) begins with Aaron’s sons Nadav and Abihu dying—as you can imagine, his whole world has been turned upside down. In order to restore order to Aaron and the Israelites’ lives, God issues numerous commandments for various activities. By following these commandments not only can order be restored, but one will come closer to experiencing holiness.
To me, one of the most meaningful of these commandments is found in verse 14: “Do not curse the deaf or put a stumbling block in front of the blind.”
This phrase does not refer to just those who are permanently impaired. We all suffer from some form of deafness or blindness, intentional or not. Our greatest appreciation for others is when they open our eyes and ears to which we did not or could not hear or see.
In business, this really is applicable in representing your business for sale and in purchasing a new business for yourself. None of us knows everything about everything, so don’t be afraid to use an agent, an attorney and an accountant when making such a big decision.
• Don’t sign a binding agreement before discussing it thoroughly with your agent and attorney.
• Use the services of a licensed real estate agent or business broker in your negotiations.
• Don’t trust an agent who won’t give you his real estate license number. Check his record with the Real Estate Commission or the Commercial Board of Realtors. http://www.grec.state.ga.us/clsweb/realestate.aspx Don’t pay commissions to people who are not licensed. If they are comfortable with breaking state laws, how honestly will they look after your interests? If you are employing them on a consulting basis, it should be on a fee basis during your due diligence period, perhaps for helping with permits or licensing applications or traffic analysis.
• Consider hiring an appraiser before you sell. That will allow your agent to market your property more aggressively and you will be more likely to get close to your full asking price.
• Keep accurate financial information. Even if your profit and loss statement is not un-audited, don’t fudge the numbers. The more honestly you approach any purchase and sale the happier all parties to the transaction will be in the end. Show all your expenses, not just the major ones. Little expenses add up and may make the difference in profitability and failure. Don’t be in the position of promising the moon and not being able to deliver.
This may seem like an impossible amount of work to do in preparing for a purchase or sale of your business. As a broker, rather than allow my clients to view this work as a stumbling block, Petro Business Services greatest strength lies in our ability to get our clients to realize that the work is not there to trip them up, but rather to help them accomplish the goals that they set out to achieve at the beginning of the purchase or sale of the business.
We are here to help with your gas station acquisition or disposition. Whether you are buying or selling, allow us to guide you through the process and recommend others who can help remove your stumbling blocks.
Shalom, Dhanaydad, Khudafiz
Success Always,
Ari Casper
As most of you know, although most of my clients are Muslim, Hindu, or Sheikh, I myself am a Jewess and it is out of my own tradition that I speak this week.
Each week we study a different section of our Holy Book, or Scroll, if you will…Torah. A parasha is a segment of Torah. This week’s double Torah parasha, Acharei Mot (After the death)/Kedoshim (Holiness) begins with Aaron’s sons Nadav and Abihu dying—as you can imagine, his whole world has been turned upside down. In order to restore order to Aaron and the Israelites’ lives, God issues numerous commandments for various activities. By following these commandments not only can order be restored, but one will come closer to experiencing holiness.
To me, one of the most meaningful of these commandments is found in verse 14: “Do not curse the deaf or put a stumbling block in front of the blind.”
This phrase does not refer to just those who are permanently impaired. We all suffer from some form of deafness or blindness, intentional or not. Our greatest appreciation for others is when they open our eyes and ears to which we did not or could not hear or see.
In business, this really is applicable in representing your business for sale and in purchasing a new business for yourself. None of us knows everything about everything, so don’t be afraid to use an agent, an attorney and an accountant when making such a big decision.
• Don’t sign a binding agreement before discussing it thoroughly with your agent and attorney.
• Use the services of a licensed real estate agent or business broker in your negotiations.
• Don’t trust an agent who won’t give you his real estate license number. Check his record with the Real Estate Commission or the Commercial Board of Realtors. http://www.grec.state.ga.us/clsweb/realestate.aspx Don’t pay commissions to people who are not licensed. If they are comfortable with breaking state laws, how honestly will they look after your interests? If you are employing them on a consulting basis, it should be on a fee basis during your due diligence period, perhaps for helping with permits or licensing applications or traffic analysis.
• Consider hiring an appraiser before you sell. That will allow your agent to market your property more aggressively and you will be more likely to get close to your full asking price.
• Keep accurate financial information. Even if your profit and loss statement is not un-audited, don’t fudge the numbers. The more honestly you approach any purchase and sale the happier all parties to the transaction will be in the end. Show all your expenses, not just the major ones. Little expenses add up and may make the difference in profitability and failure. Don’t be in the position of promising the moon and not being able to deliver.
This may seem like an impossible amount of work to do in preparing for a purchase or sale of your business. As a broker, rather than allow my clients to view this work as a stumbling block, Petro Business Services greatest strength lies in our ability to get our clients to realize that the work is not there to trip them up, but rather to help them accomplish the goals that they set out to achieve at the beginning of the purchase or sale of the business.
We are here to help with your gas station acquisition or disposition. Whether you are buying or selling, allow us to guide you through the process and recommend others who can help remove your stumbling blocks.
Shalom, Dhanaydad, Khudafiz
Success Always,
Ari Casper
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